WTI Crude Hits Fresh Lows, Desperate for Reversal

Summary

• Current price: $59.58
• Trend: Bearish
• Key Resistance: $60.89 (broken support), $62.02, $63.47
• Key Support: $58.98, $58.02, $57.02

WTI has broken decisively below key technical levels, including:

• The 50 EMA ($61.71)
• The 200 EMA ($62.86)
• Psychological support at $60.89

This confirms a trend shift to the downside as momentum builds in favor of sellers. Unless WTI recovers $60.89 quickly, rallies will likely be sold into, with deeper downside risk toward $57.02 in coming sessions.

Fundamental Drivers

1. WTI Drops 16% in April – Worst Month Since Nov 2021
   • Global risk sentiment deteriorated sharply in April.
   • Rising U.S. crude inventories (+3.8M barrels) signal soft demand.
   • Potential OPEC+ output hikes further worsen the supply-demand imbalance.
2. Macro Headwinds Mount
   • Factory activity contracting globally.
   • Consumer confidence weakening amid inflation persistence and rate concerns.
   • Recession fears are escalating, especially in energy-sensitive economies.
3. Geopolitical Drag on Demand
   • Ongoing conflicts and trade tensions are disrupting demand expectations more than supply.
   • This skews the market reaction to bearish, even with Middle East risk premiums.

Key Takeaway for Traders

• WTI: Bearish bias remains intact below $60.89. Momentum favors downside continuation unless a strong reversal develops.
• Natural Gas: Bulls must clear $3.402 to regain control. Watch for either a breakout toward $3.746 or rejection back toward support.

XTIUSD – H3 Timeframe

On the 3-hour timeframe chart of XTIUSD, we find price completing two consecutive bullish breaks of structure while leaving a Fair Value Gap behind. This is a classic description of the DBoS (double break of structure) schematic, as often traded by SMC traders. The expectation here is to see a bullish rejection from the highlighted demand area since it falls behind the FVG and provides ample liquidity via the inducement.

XTIUSD – H1 Timeframe

The 1-hour timeframe chart of XTIUSD reveals that the highlighted demand zone is not only practical based on the DBoS schematic but also contains an SBR pattern since liquidity was swept before the initial break of structure occurred.

Analyst's Expectations:

Direction: Bullish

Target- 65.72

Invalidation- 54.50

CONCLUSION

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